Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2005 Vol. 11 No. 1

Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Conditions at Palau were wetter than normal during the first half of 2004 and drier than normal during the second half of 2004. The 2004 annual totals were 125.05 inches (85%) at the Weather Service Office (WSO) in Koror, 121.60 inches at the Mariculture Center, 115.14 inches at a new rain gage placed at the Palau International Airport, and 91.92 inches at Peleliu (63%). The second half of 2004 was very dry at all Palau locations. The rainfall total for August through December 2004 at the WSO Koror was 34.60 inches, or only 54% of the normal 63.98 inches that typically falls in this 5-month period. During August, September, October, November and December, the rainfall recorded at WSO Koror was 3.94 inches (26%), 7.68 inches (65%), 7.92 inches (57%), 8.59 inches (76%), and 6.47 inches (54%), respectively. At Peleliu (about a 20-mile boat ride through the Rock Islands to the south of Koror) the rainfall during August, September, October, November, and December was 4.94 inches (33%), 6.59 inches (56%), 5.48 inches (42%), 5.56 inches (49%), and 3.25 inches (27%), respectively. The 5-month total of 25.82 inches was nearly 9 inches less than the 5-month total at WSO Koror. The recent dry conditions at Palau are consistent with the onset of weak El Niņo conditions during the second half of 2004. This dryness is expected to continue for the next three to six months. The reduction of rainfall is not expected to become a serious problem.

A direct strike by a typhoon is not likely to occur in Palau during 2005, but westerly gales may occur two or three times in response to typhoons passing to the north of Palau during the period August through November. Predicted rainfall for Palau from Feb 2005 through Jan 2006 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average
Feb - May 2005
  70
Jun - Oct 2005
95%
Nov 2005 - Jan 2006
100%
source: UOG-WERI