Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Rainfall in Kosrae averaged near normal to slightly drier than normal during the past 5 months, with a month-to-month distribution seen at many other locations in Micronesia: a wet June, a dry July, a wet August, a dry September, and a dry October. At the Kosrae Supplemental Aviation Weather Reporting Station (SAWRS) located at the airport on the northwest side of the island, the rainfall during June, July, August, September, and October was 27.37 inches (144%), 10.79 inches (63%), 23.90 inches (145%), 13.76 inches (80%), and 12.04 inches (74%), respectively. For the 5-month period June through October, the 87.86 inches at Kosrae SAWRS was 102% of normal. The rainfall at Utwa (south side of the island) was drier than at the airport. During June, July, August, September, and October the rainfall at Utwa was 22.59 inches (119%), 6.88 inches (40%), 23.04 inches (140%), 11.54 inches, and 12.14 inches (75%), respectively. The total 5-month rainfall of 76.19 inches at Utwa was 87% of normal. Long-term means at Utwa (and at other Kosrae recording locations) have not been established, so departures from average rainfall are all based on the average monthly values at Kosrae SAWRS.

El Niño conditions bring an enhanced threat of a tropical cyclone to the eastern Caroline Islands. It is possible, during the next 3 months (November, December 2004, and January 2005) that a tropical storm will pass to the north of Kosrae bringing a period of heavy rains, gusty southwest winds, and high surf. Kosrae, fortunately is located close enough to the equator so that a direct strike by a strong tropical storm or a typhoon is very unlikely.

Predicted rainfall for Kosrae State from Nov 2004 through Oct 2005 is as follows: