Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State: Rainfall was abundant throughout most of Chuuk State during 2004. The 2004 annual rainfall of 154.57 inches at the Chuuk Weather Service Office (WSO) at the airport on Weno Island was well above normal (134%) (Fig. 1). The month-to-month variability of rainfall throughout most of Chuuk State during 2004 was substantial: April and June were very wet; July was very dry; August was very wet; and the period September through December was relatively dry. A similar pattern of high month-to-month variability was seen at Guam, and at other islands in Micronesia. The fourth quarter of 2004 was drier than normal. This may be a signal of the weak El Niño that began in September 2004. Drier than normal conditions are expected for the first half of 2005 as weak El Niño conditions gradually fade. During January 2005, rains associated with the new year's first tropical cyclone (Tropical Storm Kulap) were helpful to break the recent spell of moderately dry weather.

The total rainfall for the 3-month period October, November and December was drier than normal at most of Chuuk's islands and atolls. During October, November, and December, the WSO at Weno Island measured 10.83 inches (81%), 7.32 inches (71%), and 6.96 inches (64%) respectively. This amounted to a total of 25.11 inches (73%) for the 3-month period. In the Mortlocks at Lukunoch, the rainfall was only 5.64 inches (42%) in December, 7.48 inches (72%) in November, and 7.47 inches (69%) in October. This amounted to a total of 20.59 inches (60%) for the 3-month period. At Polowat, in the western atolls, rainfall was less than half of normal during the 4th quarter of 2004. The rainfall there for October, November and December was 5.92 inches (49%), 2.46 inches (27%), and 6.57 inches (71%), respectively. This amounted to a total of only 14.95 inches (49%) for the 3-month period.

The threat from a tropical cyclone for Chuuk State during 2005 is expected to be near normal. Normal indicates that one or two tropical storms and one typhoon should pass through some parts of Chuuk State, accompanied by gales and high surf. A direct hit by a typhoon at any of the islands and atolls of Chuuk State is not expected. Based on the gradual demise of weak El Niño conditions during 2005, conditions are anticipated to be drier than normal for Chuuk State for the next 3 to 6 months.

Predictions for Chuuk State from Feb 2005 through Jan 2006 are as follows: