CCA Rainfall Outlooks for Pacific Islands

Click here for March Forecast Graphic (37 kb)

How to read the forecast:
CCA forecast of rainfall deviations from normal at selected tropical Pacific stations for the two coming 3-month periods. Red numbers show positive deviations from normal (more rainfall than normal) while blue numbers show negative deviations from normal (less rainfall than normal). The values of the numbers tell how large a deviation from normal is expected. These are not in millimeters, but are in standardized units that indicate how typical (or nontypical) the rainfall conditions are expected to be relative to the station's normal climate for the season in question. For example, numbers from 0 to 25 (or 0 to -25) are small deviations, indicating conditions that would usually be considered typical of the climate for the station and the time of year. Deviations from 25 to 60 (or -25 to -60) are moderate deviations, indicating somewhat wetter (or dryer) conditions than would be expected for the station and the time of year. Deviations of over 60 (or less than -60) are large deviations, indicating substantially wetter (or dryer) conditions than normal for the station and time of year. The SIZE OF THE TYPE of the number (not the value of the number) indicates how accurate the forecast is expected to be, on the average, for the station at the given time of year and the forecast lead time. There are three sizes: the smallest size indicates low skill, the medium size indicates moderate skill, and the largest size indicates a relatively high skill. Outlooks shown in the smallest type size are considered to have little reliability, while those in the largest type size can be trusted more.