Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2004 Vol. 10 No. 4

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)

By mid-October, Western Pacific SSTs were slightly cooler than normal throughout much of Micronesia. Warmer than normal SSTs were found near and along the equator from 160° E (the approximate longitude of Kapingamarangi) eastward across most of the central Pacific. SST anomalies exceeding +1° C (~ +2° F) were located near and along the equator in the region of the International Date Line, and in another small area surrounding the Galapagos Islands in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The region of warmer than normal subsurface ocean temperatures at 100 - 150 m (300 – 450 ft) has shifted eastward in recent weeks to now have its maximum anomalous value of over +4° C (~ +7 F) located south-southeast of Hawaii. Warm subsurface waters have not yet surfaced near the South American Coast. Unless warmer SSTs occur soon near the South American Coast, the present weak El Niño conditions will remain weak for the next three months