Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State:   The month-to-month variability of rainfall throughout most of Chuuk State during the past five months has been substantial: June was very wet; July was very dry; August was very wet; September and October were both relatively dry. This same pattern of month-to-month variability was seen at Guam (Fig. 1), and at many other islands in Micronesia. During June, July, August, September, and October, the Weather Service Office (WSO) at Weno Island measured 20.68 inches (176%), 12.50 inches (103%), 18.70 inches (128%), 9.05 inches (78%), and 10.83 inches (81%) respectively. This amounted to a total of 71.76 inches (113%) for the 5-month period. Other locations in Chuuk State were drier than at the WSO Weno. In the Mortlocks at Lukunoch, the rainfall was 17.49 inches (149%) in June, 3.17 inches (26%) in July, 18.80 inches (129%) in August, 8.76 inches (76%) in September, and 5.64 inches (42%) in October. The Lukunoch total of 53.86 inches for these 5 months was 85% of normal. At Polowat, in the western atolls, the rainfall for April, May, June, July, August, and September was 14.83 inches (124%), 8.52 inches (61%), 13.71 inches (91%), 2.04 inches (16%), and 5.92 inches (49%), respectively. This amounted to a total of 45.02 inches (69%) for the 5-month period.

The threat from a tropical cyclone for Chuuk State for the next three-months (November and December 2004, and January 2005) should be near normal. Normal indicates that one or two tropical storms should pass through some parts of Chuuk State, accompanied by gales and high surf. A direct hit by a typhoon at any of the islands and atolls of Chuuk State is not expected, but the greatest risk is during the next three months.

Predictions for Chuuk State from Nov 2004 through Oct 2005 are as follows: