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June - July - August (JJA) 2008
Model:
|
Final Outlook
|
Final Probabilities
|
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Republic of Palau |
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Koror |
L 7 ° 22' N, λ 134° 32' E |
Avg. |
Below |
Avg-below |
Above |
Avg. |
Climatology |
Below |
Avg-above
|
30:35:35
|
Federated States of Micronesia
|
||||||||||
Yap |
L 9° 29' N, λ 138° 05' E |
Avg-below
|
Below |
Avg-below |
Above |
Avg-above |
Climatology |
Below |
Avg-above
|
30:35:35
|
Chuuk |
L 7° 28' N, λ 151° 51' E |
Avg-below
|
Below |
Avg-below |
Below |
Avg-above
|
Climatology |
Above |
Climatology
|
33:33:33
|
Pohnpei |
L 6 ° 59' N, λ 158° 12' E |
Avg.
|
Avg-below |
Below |
Avg-below |
Above |
Climatology |
Below |
Avg-above
|
30:35:35
|
Kosrae |
L 5 ° 21' N, λ 162° 57' E |
Avg-above
|
Above |
Below |
Avg-below |
Above |
Climatology |
Not Available |
Avg-above
|
30:35:35
|
Republic of the Marshall Islands
|
||||||||||
Kwajalein |
L 8 ° 43' N, λ 167° 44' E |
Below
|
Below |
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg-above |
Climatology |
Above |
Avg-below
|
35:35:30
|
Majuro |
L 7° 04' N, λ 171° 17' E |
Climatology
|
Below |
Below |
Avg. |
Avg-above |
Below |
Above |
Avg-below
|
35:35:30
|
Guam and CNMI
|
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Guam |
L 13 ° 29' N, λ 144° 48' E |
Avg-below
|
Below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Above |
Climatology |
Above |
Climatology
|
33:33:33
|
Saipan |
L 15 ° 06' N, λ 145° 48' E |
Climatology
|
Avg-below |
Avg-Above |
Avg-below |
Above |
Climatology |
Above |
Climatology |
33:33:33
|
American Samoa
|
||||||||||
Pago Pago |
L 14 ° 20' S, λ 170° 43' E |
Below |
Above |
Avg-Above |
Avg. |
Avg-below |
Above |
Below |
Avg-below |
35:35:30
|
State of Hawaii
|
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Lihue |
L 21 ° 59' N, λ 159 ° 20' E |
Avg-Above |
Below |
Avg-Above |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Below |
Below |
Below
|
40:35:25
|
Honolulu |
L 21 ° 19' N, λ 157° 56' W |
Climatology
|
Below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Below |
Below |
Below
|
40:35:25
|
Kahului |
L 20 ° 54' N, λ 156° 26' E |
Below
|
Below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Below |
Above |
Below
|
40:30:30
|
Hilo |
L 19 ° 43' N, λ 155° 03' E |
Below
|
Below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Below |
Avg-below |
Below
|
40:30:30
|
Click here to download June Summary and discussion as a .pdf file.
Forecast Discussion
Koror: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be AVERAGE or ABOVE AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 46.15 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 46.15 inches and 53.08 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 53.08 inches.
Yap: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be AVERAGE or ABOVE AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 39.70 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 39.70 inches and 43.52 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.52 inches.
Chuuk: A rainfall forecast of CLIMATOLOGY means that there are EQUAL CHANCES of Chuuk receiving BELOW NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL or ABOVE NORMAL rainfall in June-July-August 2008. There is a 33.33% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 33.95 inches; a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be between 33.95 inches and 42.22 inches; and a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.22 inches.
Pohnpei: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be AVERAGE or ABOVE AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 44.31 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 44.31 inches and 54.81 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 54.81 inches.
Kosrae: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be AVERAGE or ABOVE AVERAGE for Kosrae. ***Tercile cut-offs not yet established for Kosrae.***
Kwajalein: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be Average or BELOW AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 27.31 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 27.31 inches and 33.28 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.28 inches.
Majuro: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be Average or BELOW AVERAGE for Majuro. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 32.97 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 32.97 inches and 37.33 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 37.33 inches.
Guam: A rainfall forecast of CLIMATOLOGY means that there are EQUAL CHANCES of Guam receiving BELOW NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL or ABOVE NORMAL rainfall in June-July-August 2008. There is a 33.33% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 29.15 inches; a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be between 29.15 inches and 33.69 inches; and a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.69 inches.
Saipan: A rainfall forecast of CLIMATOLOGY means that there are EQUAL CHANCES of Saipan receiving BELOW NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL or ABOVE NORMAL rainfall in June-July-August 2008. There is a 33.33% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 20.34 inches; a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be between 20.34 inches and 30.14 inches; and a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be greater than 30.14 inches.
Pago Pago: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be AVERAGE or BELOW AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 14.81 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 14.81 inches and 20.91 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 20.91 inches.
Lihue: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be BELOW AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 5.04 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 5.04 inches and 6.76 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 6.76 inches.
Honolulu: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be BELOW AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 0.73 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 0.73 inches and 1.72 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 1.72 inches.
Kahului: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be BELOW AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 0.86 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 0.86 inches and 1.51 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 1.51 inches.
Hilo: Rainfall for June-July-August 2008 is expected to be BELOW AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the JJA season will be less than 19.45 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 19.45 inches and 33.15 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.15 inches.
The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on the Pacific Rainfall Climatologies Atlas No. 5 (base period 1971-2000). The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for July-August-September (JAS) 2008 will be available on 14 July 2008.
Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center