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October - November - December (OND) 2009
Model:
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Final Outlook
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Final Probabilities
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Republic of Palau |
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Koror |
L 7 ° 22' N, λ 134° 32' E |
Avg-below
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Below |
Avg-below |
Avg-below |
Avg.
|
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg-below
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35:35:30
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Federated States of Micronesia
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Yap |
L 9° 29' N, λ 138° 05' E |
Above
|
Above |
Avg-below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Climatology |
Below |
Avg.
|
30:40:30
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Chuuk |
L 7° 28' N, λ 151° 51' E |
Below |
Above |
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg.
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Climatology |
Below |
Avg-below
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35:35:30
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Pohnpei |
L 6 ° 59' N, λ 158° 12' E |
Below |
Avg. |
Below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Climatology |
Avg-above |
Avg-below
|
35:35:30
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Kosrae |
L 5 ° 21' N, λ 162° 57' E |
Below
|
Above |
Below |
Avg. |
Avg-above |
Climatology |
N/A |
Avg-below
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35:35:30
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Republic of the Marshall Islands
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Kwajalein |
L 8 ° 43' N, λ 167° 44' E |
Climatology
|
Avg. |
Below |
Avg. |
Avg-above |
Climatology |
Climatology |
Avg.
|
30:40:30
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Majuro |
L 7° 04' N, λ 171° 17' E |
Below
|
Avg. |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Above |
Climatology |
Above
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Avg.
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30:40:30
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Guam and CNMI
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Guam |
L 13 ° 29' N, λ 144° 48' E |
Avg-above
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Above |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Above |
Avg. |
Above
|
25:35:40
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Saipan |
L 15 ° 06' N, λ 145° 48' E |
Avg.
|
Above |
Avg-above |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Above |
Climatology |
Avg-above |
30:35:35
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American Samoa
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Pago Pago |
L 14 ° 20' S, λ 170° 43' E |
Below |
Below |
Above |
Avg. |
Avg-below |
Climatology |
Avg-above |
Avg. |
30:40:30
|
State of Hawaii
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Lihue |
L 21 ° 59' N, λ 159 ° 20' E |
Below |
Below |
Below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Climatology |
Avg-below |
Below
|
40:30:30
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Honolulu |
L 21 ° 19' N, λ 157° 56' W |
Below
|
Below |
Below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Climatology |
Below |
Below
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40:30:30
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Kahului |
L 20 ° 54' N, λ 156° 26' E |
Avg-below
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Avg-below |
Below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Climatology |
Climatology |
Avg-below
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35:35:30
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Hilo |
L 19 ° 43' N, λ 155° 03' E |
Avg.
|
Avg-below
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Below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Climatology |
Below |
Avg-below
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35:35:30
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*Coming Soon* - Click here to download October PEAC Audio Conference Summary and discussion as a .pdf file.
Forecast Discussion
Koror: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE or BELOW AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 32.4 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 32.4 inches and 41.93 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 41.93 inches.
Yap: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 27.7 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 27.7 inches and 34.05 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 34.05 inches.
Chuuk: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE or BELOW AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 30.81 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 30.81 inches and 41.67 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 41.67 inches.
Pohnpei: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE or BELOW AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 44.2 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 44.2 inches and 50.78 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 50.78 inches.
Kosrae: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE or BELOW AVERAGE for Kosrae. ***Tercile cut-offs not yet established for Kosrae.***
Kwajalein: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 26.89 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 26.89 inches and 31.67 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.67 inches.
Majuro: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE for Majuro. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 34.05 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 34.05 inches and 42.06 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.06 inches.
Guam: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be ABOVE AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 23.77 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 23.77 inches and 27.47 inches; and a 45% chance that rainfall will be greater than 27.47 inches.
Saipan: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE or ABOVE AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 18.33 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 18.33 inches and 21.92 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 21.92 inches.
Pago Pago: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 29.13 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 29.13 inches and 41.03 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 41.03 inches.
Lihue: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be BELOW AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 9.24 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 9.24 inches and 15.56 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 15.56 inches.
Honolulu: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be BELOW AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 4.36 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 4.36 inches and 8.34 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.34 inches.
Kahului: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE or BELOW AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 3.53 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 3.53 inches and 7.11 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 7.11 inches.
Hilo: Rainfall for October-November-December 2009 is expected to be AVERAGE or BELOW AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the OND season will be less than 26.85 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 26.85 inches and 40.98 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 40.98 inches.
The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on the Pacific Rainfall Climatologies Atlas No. 5 (base period 1971-2000). The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for November-December-January (NDJ) 2009-2010 will be available on 20 November 2009.
Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center