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August - September - October (ASO) 2008
Model:
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Final Outlook
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Final Probabilities
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Republic of Palau |
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Koror |
L 7 ° 22' N, λ 134° 32' E |
Above
|
Below |
Avg-below |
Above |
Avg-above
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Climatology |
Climatology |
Avg-Above
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30:35:35
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Federated States of Micronesia
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Yap |
L 9° 29' N, λ 138° 05' E |
Avg-below
|
Below |
Avg-below |
Above |
Avg-above |
Climatology |
Avg-above |
Avg-below
|
35:35:30
|
Chuuk |
L 7° 28' N, λ 151° 51' E |
Above |
Below |
Avg. |
Avg-below |
Avg-above
|
Climatology |
Avg-above |
Climatology
|
33:33:33
|
Pohnpei |
L 6 ° 59' N, λ 158° 12' E |
Above |
Avg-below |
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg-above |
Climatology |
Avg-above |
Climatology
|
33:33:33
|
Kosrae |
L 5 ° 21' N, λ 162° 57' E |
Above
|
Above |
Avg-below |
Avg-below |
Above |
Climatology |
Not Available |
Climatology
|
33:33:33
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Republic of the Marshall Islands
|
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Kwajalein |
L 8 ° 43' N, λ 167° 44' E |
Above
|
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg. |
Avg-below |
Climatology |
Below |
Climatology
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33:33:33
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Majuro |
L 7° 04' N, λ 171° 17' E |
Above
|
Below |
Avg. |
Avg. |
Avg-above |
Climatology |
Above |
Climatology
|
33:33:33
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Guam and CNMI
|
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Guam |
L 13 ° 29' N, λ 144° 48' E |
Below
|
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg-below |
Avg-above |
Climatology |
Below |
Below
|
40:30:30
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Saipan |
L 15 ° 06' N, λ 145° 48' E |
Below
|
Below |
Avg. |
Below |
Avg-above |
Climatology |
Above |
Below |
40:30:30
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American Samoa
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Pago Pago |
L 14 ° 20' S, λ 170° 43' E |
Avg-below |
Avg. |
Avg-Above |
Avg-below |
Avg-below |
Climatology |
Below |
Avg-below |
35:35:30
|
State of Hawaii
|
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Lihue |
L 21 ° 59' N, λ 159 ° 20' E |
Avg. |
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg. |
Avg-below |
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg-below |
35:35:30
|
Honolulu |
L 21 ° 19' N, λ 157° 56' W |
Avg.
|
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg. |
Avg-below |
Below |
Below |
Below
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40:35:25
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Kahului |
L 20 ° 54' N, λ 156° 26' E |
Avg.
|
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg. |
Avg-below |
Below |
Climatology |
Avg-below
|
35:35:30
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Hilo |
L 19 ° 43' N, λ 155° 03' E |
Avg.
|
Below |
Avg-below |
Avg. |
Avg-below |
Below |
Below |
Below
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40:35:25
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Click here to download August PEAC Audio Conference Summary and discussion as a .pdf file.
Forecast Discussion
Koror: Rainfall for August-September-October 2008 is expected to be Average or ABOVE AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 37.26 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 37.26 inches and 43.25 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.25 inches.
Yap: Rainfall for August-September-October 2008 is expected to be Average or BELOW AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 37.54 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 37.54 inches and 42.37 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.37 inches.
Chuuk: A rainfall forecast of CLIMATOLOGY means that there are EQUAL CHANCES of Chuuk receiving BELOW NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL or ABOVE NORMAL rainfall in August-September-October 2008. There is a 33.33% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 34.85 inches; a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be between 34.85 inches and 44.02 inches; and a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be greater than 44.02 inches.
Pohnpei: A rainfall forecast of CLIMATOLOGY means that there are EQUAL CHANCES of Pohnpei receiving BELOW NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL or ABOVE NORMAL rainfall in August-September-October 2008. There is a 33.33% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 44.06 inches; a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be between 44.06 inches and 48.48 inches; and a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be greater than 48.48 inches.
Kosrae: A rainfall forecast of CLIMATOLOGY means that there are EQUAL CHANCES of Pohnpei receiving BELOW NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL or ABOVE NORMAL rainfall in August-September-October 2008. ***Tercile cut-offs not yet established for Kosrae.***
Kwajalein: A rainfall forecast of CLIMATOLOGY means that there are EQUAL CHANCES of Kwajalein receiving BELOW NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL or ABOVE NORMAL rainfall in August-September-October 2008. There is a 33.33% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 29.78 inches; a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be between 29.78 inches and 36.95 inches; and a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be greater than 36.95 inches.
Majuro: A rainfall forecast of CLIMATOLOGY means that there are EQUAL CHANCES of Majuro receiving BELOW NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL or ABOVE NORMAL rainfall in August-September-October 2008. There is a 33.33% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 35.14 inches; a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be between 35.14 inches and 40.86 inches; and a 33.33% chance that rainfall will be greater than 40.86 inches.
Guam: Rainfall for August-September-October 2008 is expected to be BELOW AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 35.05 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 35.05 inches and 42.60 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.60 inches.
Saipan: Rainfall for August-September-October 2008 is expected to be BELOW AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 29.63 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 29.63 inches and 35.46 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 35.46 inches.
Pago Pago: Rainfall for August-September-October 2008 is expected to be Average or BELOW AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 17.22 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 17.22 inches and 28.31 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 28.31 inches.
Lihue: Rainfall for August-September-October 2008 is expected to be Average or BELOW AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 7.25 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 7.25 inches and 9.06 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 9.06 inches.
Honolulu: Rainfall for August-September-October 2008 is expected to be BELOW AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 1.62 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 1.62 inches and 3.46 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 3.46 inches.
Kahului: Rainfall for August-September-October 2008 is expected to be Average or BELOW AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 1.02 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 1.02 inches and 2.34 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 2.34 inches.
Hilo: Rainfall for August-September-October 2008 is expected to be BELOW AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 23.18 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 23.18 inches and 31.85 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.85 inches.
The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on the Pacific Rainfall Climatologies Atlas No. 5 (base period 1971-2000). The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for September-October-November (SON) 2008 will be available on 8 September 2008.
Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center